United Nations: Rhino – After fourteen months of conflict, Sudan is facing the worst levels of acute food insecurity on record, with more than half of the population – 25.6 million people – expected to face “crisis” level or worse conditions between June and September 2024.

This is according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IFSPC) – jointly prepared by humanitarian agencies and partners – published on Thursday.

During the same period, 755,000 people in 10 states, including the five Greater Darfur states as well as South and North Kordofan, Blue Nile, Gezira and Khartoum, are facing disaster or famine – the fifth stage of the classification. Meanwhile, 8.5 million people – 18 per cent of the population – are facing a state of emergency, which is the fourth stage of the classification.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IFSC) consists of five stages, with “crisis” or acute food insecurity being the third stage of the classification. The fourth stage is the emergency stage and the fifth stage is the disaster or famine stage.

The report warns that the risk of famine looms in 14 areas – affecting both residents, IDPs and refugees – in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, Gezira states and some hotspots in Khartoum, if the conflict escalates further, including through increased mobilization of local militias which hinders movement, humanitarian assistance, shopping activities and livelihoods.

According to the report, the situation is particularly critical for populations trapped in areas affected by direct conflict and/or insecurity and lack of protection, particularly in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, Khartoum and Gezira states.

At least 534,000 IDPs and refugees in conflict-affected localities and states for which data is available – representing about 20 per cent of Sudan’s displaced population – are likely to face critical or catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity (IFSC Stage 4 or 5).

The findings of the report indicate a stark and rapid deterioration in the food security situation compared to the previous update of the IFSC released in December 2023. The number of people facing a ‘crisis’ level or higher increased by 45 per cent (from 17.7 million to 25.6 million). The number of people in the ’emergency’ phase increased by 74 per cent (+3.6 million).

The number of people facing the disaster phase increased from zero to 755,000.

According to the report, conflict, insecurity, displacement and economic shocks are key drivers of food insecurity. Widespread conflict and insecurity have led to a complex food crisis that continues to affect the lives of millions of people due to restrictions on movement, disruption of markets and essential services, hindered agricultural production and livelihoods, and reduced humanitarian access.

The conflict in Sudan has expanded beyond its initial focus on Khartoum and West and Central Darfur states. The frontline has now shifted to include additional areas such as North Darfur, South and West Kordofan, Gezira, Sennar and Blue Nile.

Sudan is facing the world’s worst internal displacement crisis, with an unprecedented 10.1 million people displaced in all states of Sudan. Another 2.2 million people have sought refuge in neighboring countries in search of safety and humanitarian assistance.

The displaced have largely lost their livelihoods, affecting their ability to produce and/or access food. Moreover, intra-community displacement has intensified competition and pressure on available food resources and services, while socio-economic structures have continued to weaken.

In terms of economic shocks, Sudan is experiencing rising food prices, with commodity prices rising by between 130 and 296 per cent in May – compared to the five-year average – in some areas such as El Fasher.

Inflation has increased due to a number of factors including tight markets – especially in urban centers in Khartoum, North Darfur and Gezira states, limited food supplies – due to disrupted supply chains, the rapid devaluation of the Sudanese pound, and reduced food production in the previous season.

Among the actions the report recommends are:

Firstly, restore safe and sustainable humanitarian access to enable rapid and unhindered passage of humanitarian relief to people in need.

Second, provide immediate multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance such as ensuring the safe delivery of essential humanitarian supplies, including food or cash, water, medicines and essential services to all people in need.

Third, restoring and scaling up nutrition interventions such as implementing urgent treatments for malnutrition, including community-based management of acute malnutrition and emergency infant and young child feeding, especially in Greater Darfur

Fourth, restoring productive systems and supporting livelihoods such as ensuring the establishment of safe zones within agricultural lands and the timely distribution of agricultural inputs to rural areas where conditions are favorable for agriculture, including Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, Gezira and Sennar.