President Trump’s policies will focus on conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and with China, but will Sudan also be among his foreign policy priorities, especially since his previous administration strongly supported Khartoum to normalize its relations with Tel Aviv?
At the center of international competition for oil and natural resources in West Africa, resource-rich Sudan has also become an arena for geopolitical competition between major and regional powers such as China, India, Iran, Russia, Egypt and the UAE. As the US seeks to make Africa a vital strategic base in order to secure oil supplies and reduce dependence on the turbulent Middle East, Sudan is at the center of this growing interest.
Trying to win American support:
The rush to offer congratulations to US President Donald Trump by some Sudanese figures and forces reflects their interest in strengthening their relations with the new US administration. This eagerness to congratulate may reflect an attempt to gain political support from the United States, especially in light of the complex political and economic circumstances Sudan is going through and its need for strong foreign relations to support its stability and development endeavors. The Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces congratulated Trump, expressing hope that he will play a prominent role in achieving peace in Sudan and the region. RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (Hemedti) described Trump’s victory as “historic” and expressed his willingness to cooperate to achieve a comprehensive peace in Sudan, indicating a desire to take advantage of US support to achieve internal stability. Sudan’s army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, also expressed Sudan’s aspiration to strengthen relations with Washington, a move that indicates the importance of bilateral relations to achieve common interests.
Virginia-based political analyst Salah Shuaib believes that the rush of congratulations to Trump is related to the desire of some Sudanese parties to take advantage of Trump’s previous relations under the “Abraham Accords,” as Trump had previously supported Sudan’s normalization of relations with Israel. It also suggests that Hemedti and Burhan, who were supporters of these agreements, are seeking to present Trump as a potential ally, in the hope of gaining American support in the international arena.
According to political opinions, the Biden administration bears part of the responsibility for the escalation of the conflict in Sudan as a result of its neglect of the situation there after the overthrow of the Bashir regime in April 2019. Despite these events, the Trump administration was focused on normalizing Sudanese-Israeli relations, which reduced its attention to the Sudanese crisis.”
Volatile relations and ongoing challenges:
On February 26, 2024, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony J. announced the appointment of Tom Perriello as U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan. Perriello will work to coordinate U.S. policy toward Sudan, promote efforts to cease hostilities and ensure effective humanitarian access, in support of the Sudanese people as they seek to realize their aspirations for freedom, peace, and justice. However, the US envoy’s efforts have been limited to diplomatic tours that have not yielded solutions on the ground.
Observers believe that US policy towards Sudan is not a priority for the new administration led by US President Donald Trump, as he will mainly focus on more pressing issues in other regions such as the Middle East, Asia and Europe, given the ongoing tensions in those regions and their direct impact on the US economy.
Elfatih Osman, former head of the US affairs department at the Rased Center for Political Studies, believes that the Sudan file is “secondary” to the US administration. He adds that dealing with Sudan is mainly done through proxies such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and that the Trump administration has been focusing on its relations with figures such as Mohammed bin Zayed, Mohammed bin Salman and al-Sisi, and not prioritizing military resolution or supporting democracy in Sudan.
However, political analyst Salah Shuaib points out that the ongoing escalation in Sudan may prompt the US administration to intervene directly if the crisis becomes a threat to regional and international peace and security. If the situation worsens, Trump may put pressure on his advisors to provide effective solutions, especially if the conflict becomes a threat to US interests or Washington’s allies in the region.
Fatih Osman believes that Trump has the ability to pressure his allies to stop the war in Sudan if he can offer a deal that satisfies the Sudanese military. However, he does not believe that Sudan is a priority for the U.S. administration in the context of the wars that Trump seeks to end.
In another context, on October 23, 2020, the Sudanese Sovereignty Council announced that the US president had signed the decision to remove Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, a decision that the council considered a “historic day for Sudan” under the country’s interim leadership during the transitional period. Politicians point out that the United States has consistent policies towards its foreign issues, including Sudan, but the way these policies are implemented changes with the change of administrations. The fundamental difference lies in each administration’s way of serving U.S. interests.
As for the future, Sudan faces significant challenges in achieving political and economic stability, especially as the internal conflict escalates. The hope remains that by appointing a special envoy such as Tom Perriello, the United States can provide real assistance to achieve calm, especially if the violence escalates in a way that threatens regional security.
In conclusion, the question remains whether Sudanese-US relations will continue to be governed by strategic interests that focus mainly on influence in Africa and the fight against terrorist activities, while the method of interaction may change depending on the development of events on the ground.
