As concern grows that the war in Sudan could turn into an all-out ethnic conflict, the head of the Shukriya tribe, Ahmed Mohamed Hamad Abusen, issued a statement calling on members of the tribe to take up arms and fight alongside the armed forces against the RSF in the East Gezira region.This statement reflects the escalating tension in the country, amid fears that this escalation could lead to an all-out ethnic war and civil war between the tribes, deepening the crisis and threatening the country’s stability.
Background:
Since the outbreak of war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on April 15, 2023, the country has been witnessing violent confrontations that have led to widespread destruction and the displacement of millions.This conflict came as a result of tensions that escalated after a military coup led by the Sudanese Islamic Movement (SIM), which used army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the transitional civilian government.This coup caused the armed forces to divide into two military forces, one (the army) with the continuation of the coup, and another (the Rapid Support Forces) that apologized for it and demanded a return to civilian rule, which led to the outbreak of war in Khartoum on April 15 of last year, by the forces supporting the coup, and its subsequent transition to a full-scale war in large parts of Sudan.
The Shukriya tribal leader’s statement:
Yesterday, the head of the Shukriya tribe in Gedaref and Kassala states called on members of the tribe to mobilize to support their people in East Gezira and support the army against the RSF:
“The Shukriyah panchayat calls on all Shukriyah people in the eastern region to move immediately to support their people in the east of the island to repel the brutal attack and stand with the armed forces to repel any aggression against our people in Rifa’a and Timbul, and victory is only from God.”
The statement comes against the backdrop of decisive field developments in the Tambul region of Gezira State, where the Sudanese army was defeated by the RSF twice in a row.Hundreds of soldiers and officers have been killed, including Brigadier General Ahmed Sha’adin, commander of the Al-Batana Military Zone.
Field escalation:
The RSF asserted in a statement that it was able to repel the army’s attack, killing 370 soldiers and officers, in addition to capturing 60 combat vehicles with full equipment.The RSF also explained that this battle saw heavy losses for the Sudanese army, including the death of Brigadier General Ahmed Sha’adin, who was leading the attack in the Tambul area.The RSF noted that the attack was backed by Islamist militias aiming to regain control of the area but failed to achieve their goals.
Fears of the war turning into an ethnic conflict:
With the escalation of the military conflict and the mobilization of tribes along ethnic lines, fears are growing that the war between the Sudanese army and the RSF could turn into an all-out civil war.
The Shukriya tribal leader’s statement represents a direct incitement to tribal members to take up arms and engage in the conflict, increasing the likelihood that the war will escalate into an ethnic conflict among the different tribes in Sudan.
Implications of the statement:
The Shukriya tribal leader’s call represents a serious escalation in the process of tribal mobilization, which reinforces fears that the war will turn into a full-scale civil war.
Observers fear that the military confrontations will turn into an ethnic conflict, especially with the simultaneous organized media campaigns by the remnants of the former regime and their media platforms that promote hate speech and racism.
Political and national figures and writers warned of the danger of the current war turning into a full-scale civil war, resulting in genocide, ethnic cleansing and the fragmentation of what remains of Sudan.They called on all Sudanese official, popular and civil parties to move quickly to stop this war and not allow it to turn into a full-scale civil war.
Prolonging the conflict:
The statement by the Shukriya tribal leader poses a clear danger of the current war in Sudan turning from a war between military forces and supporting armed brigades into an ethnic conflict and an all-out civil war.
The continuation of these dynamics could prolong the conflict and destroy the country’s social fabric, putting Sudan on the brink of the abyss.Therefore, national and international powers must urgently intervene to stop this escalation and prevent the country from sliding into a devastating civil war.
