Today, October 13, 2024, is the day the Nile Basin Water Cooperation Agreement, or Entebbe Agreement, enters into force, 14 years after the Nile riparian countries signed the agreement. These countries include: Uganda, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Kenya, DR Congo, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan, with the exception of the two downstream countries (Sudan and Egypt), which refused to sign the framework agreement in 2010 due to their concerns about the impact on their shares of Nile water, which were determined in agreements signed in 1902, 1929 and 1959, giving Egypt 55.5 billion cubic meters per year of Nile water and Sudan 18.5 billion cubic meters per year. These quotas are rejected by upstream countries, especially Ethiopia, which considers them unfair and imposed by colonial authorities.
About the Entebbe Agreement:
A quarter of a century ago (2009), under the initiative and sponsorship of the United Nations and the World Bank, an initiative was launched to organize cooperation and management of the water resources of the Nile River among the riparian countries. The initiative did not succeed due to a dispute raised by Egypt over the terms of the proposed framework agreement. The upstream countries agreed to establish a new commission, called the Nile Water Commission, to manage and regulate the river’s water affairs. The biggest dispute was over Article 14 of the new agreement, which reads: “Nile Basin countries agree in a spirit of cooperation not to significantly affect the water security of any other country in the Nile Basin,” while Egypt demanded that the text be amended to read: ”Not significantly affect the water security (and current uses and rights) of any other country in the Nile Basin. “not to significantly affect the water security (and current uses) and rights of any other country in the Nile Basin,” in a clear reference to its concerns about the impact of the agreement on its share of the water rights it received under the old agreements.
After nearly 10 years of disagreement, the upstream countries (8 countries) met in Entebbe, Uganda and signed the agreement, while the two downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) refused to sign and froze their participation in the entire Nile Basin Initiative.
Today is October 13: First day of implementation of the agreement:
According to the Entebbe Agreement’s regulations, the agreement enters into force 60 days after two-thirds of the Nile Basin countries have ratified it. South Sudan was the last country to ratify it on August 14, meaning the agreement entered into force on August 13. The agreement was deposited with the African Union and announced from the podium of the United Nations General Assembly on September 28.
The political implications of the Ethiopian timing, platform, and announcement:
The announcement of the new agreement in the world’s largest political forum by Ethiopian Foreign Minister Taye Atske Selassie carries great political significance. The agreement is expected to be widely recognized internationally, and its decisions will have great legal and political legitimacy.
The timing of the announcement by Ethiopia, which is experiencing tensions in its relationship with Egypt over the Renaissance Dam, coincides with Egypt’s military interventions in Somalia on Ethiopia’s borders, sending military aid to Mogadishu, and Egypt’s alliance with Eritrea to encircle Ethiopia. All these factors make the timing of the announcement part of the hidden war between the two countries, and carries a clear Ethiopian message to Egypt that it has strong pressure tools against Ethiopia.
The impact of the new agreement on Egypt and Sudan:
Since its independence, Sudan has been dependent on Egypt for Nile River water, especially during periods of military rule. With the exception of a short period during the civilian transitional government (two years and two months) from August 2019 until the October 25, 2021 coup, Sudan has never taken an independent stance regarding its water interests. Currently, Sudan has been fighting a devastating internal war for more than a year and a half, which has brought all its water-related agricultural and industrial projects to a halt, leaving its entire water share going to Egypt, which is perhaps why the Port Sudan-based military government has not commented on the new agreement, nor has Egypt.
Sudanese observers believe that the lack of comment from Egypt, which is known for its fears and concerns about its water security, is due to the greater than usual availability of water at the moment, due to its appropriation of Sudan’s entire share as a result of the war.
Sudanese analysts believe that Egypt is the biggest beneficiary of the current war in Sudan,
The cessation of the war and Sudan’s utilization of its share deepens its crises and puts it in tensions with the Entebbe Agreement countries, as well as Ethiopia, which is Egypt’s sworn water enemy.
Conclusion:
With the Entebbe Agreement coming into force today, Egypt is facing a crisis that exacerbates concerns about its water security, especially after most upstream countries ratified the agreement, which ignores its (historical) share of the Nile waters, a crisis that goes beyond its water security to concerns about the future of peace in Sudan.
It has become clear that the entry into force of the agreement reflects an important shift in the Nile water management file, which will have a major impact on water and political relations in the region. Egypt faces new challenges that may change the course of its relations with upstream countries, especially in light of the current regional tensions and blocs. The alternative is to support the Sudanese army and the Muslim Brotherhood in their war, until they come to power and then pay the bill for the war support from the water quota, or to perpetuate the Sudanese war, which is completely impossible.
