Rhino: Agencies – An independent European security institute described what the Sudanese Armed Forces followed in its war with the Rapid Support Forces as major military and political mistakes and said that these mistakes ‘increased the likelihood of its disintegration and the destruction of the Sudanese state.’

Since the start of the war in April 2023, the SAF has applied a defensive strategy in response to RSF attacks, resulting in the fall of army garrisons repeatedly.

A report by the Tactics Institute for Security and Counterterrorism, an independent organization based in London, said that the SAF is extremely frustrated and suffers from high rates of desertion and defection. The capital of Central Darfur was lost to the RSF in October when the SAF’s 21st Infantry Division fled the area, West Darfur fell to the RSF a few days later after most of the 15th Division’s garrison fled, leaving behind a supply of weapons, and in November 2023, the SAF’s 22nd Division withdrew from the Bleila oil field, leaving the structure in the hands of the RSF. With its headquarters in Khartoum under siege since April 2023, the SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, now operates from Port Sudan, which suffers from energy shortages and chronic shortages of fresh water).

The institute revealed in its report that the fall of Wad Madani southeast of Khartoum earlier, turned public opinion against al-Burhan and his leadership of the war, with some calling for the Sudanese army commander to be replaced.

The Sudanese army, once seen as a force to be reckoned with, has spent 11 months in action, often failing to maintain control over vital national territory, including much of the Darfur region, most of the capital, and large swathes of the Jazira agricultural region. When the war began, the heavily armed Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) were flying overhead and using heavy weaponry. The Sudanese Armed Forces recaptured areas of Omdurman from the RSF, one of the few successes of the armed forces, after months of humiliating retreats and losses, since the fighting began almost a year ago.

Ahead of the fall of the city of Sinja, the capital of Sennar state, and other areas to the RSF, the report said that the resistance of the once-strong armed forces to the RSF offensive is weakening at all levels.

On 15 April, a devastating war broke out in Sudan between the army and the RSF, killing tens of thousands, displacing millions of civilians, destroying the country’s infrastructure, causing an almost complete collapse of the economy, and leading to what UN organizations have described as the largest humanitarian catastrophe on the planet.